Fremtidsforskning og cases

Fremtidsforskning i DK

Fremtidsforskningens historie i Danmark.

Akademiet for Fremtidsforskning
I 1968 opsøger Arne Sørensen Thorkil Kristensen og opfordrer ham til at stille op til valg som præsident for Akademiet for Fremtidsforskning og det bliver Thorkil Kristensen efterfølgende valgt til.
Akademiet for Fremtidsforskning var blevet oprettet i 1967 med valg af Arne Sørensen som generalsekretær. (Kristensen 1989: 88). 

Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning
Thorkil Kristensen tager initiativ til at oprette Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning. Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning udgiver tidsskrifter fremtidsorientering. (Kristensen 1989: 89). 


Akademiet for Fremtidsforskning 
Akademiet for Fremtidsforskning blev stiftet i 1967 af politikeren Arne Sørensen og sociologen Erik Høgh m.fl.
Årsberetning for Akademiet for Fremtidsforskning for året 1988, v/Erik Høgh

Arne Sørensen (1906-1978)ørensen ... 

Sørensen, Arne og J. Witt-Hansen red. 1975: Fremtidens verden: På vej mod det 21. århundrede. Politiken.

Om Arne Sørensen og Dansk Samling
Henrik Lundbak 2001: Staten stærk og folket frit - Dansk Samling mellem fascisme og modstandskamp 1936-47. 
... Om Arne Sørensen`s opgør med ideerne bag Dansk Samling efter krigen ... (Lundbak 2001: 594). ... 

Erik Høgh 1978: Arne Sørensen - optimismens afklarer. Futuriblerne, Nr. 4/5 (1978). 
Erik Høgh 1978: Arne Sørensen : 2. oktober 1906 - 1. marts 1978. Orientering om fremtidsforskning, Nr. 2 (1978).

Erik Høgh (1929-2004) 
Erik Høgh varetog Arne Sørensens arkiv efter dennes død.øgh
Erik Høgh 1990: Future research in Denmark 1987-1990. The Institute for Longitudinal Studies.
Erik Høgh 1975: ... år 2000. 85% af jordens befolkning er undergivet grufulde diktaturer ... Liberal, Nr. 8 (1975). ... 

Erik Høgh 1977: Dialektik og den morfologiske metode : en analytisk, filosofisk simulationsanalyse. Futuriblerne, Nr. 1/2 (1977).

Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning

Thorkil Kristensen (1899-1989)
Erik Høgh 1989: Mindeord om Thorkil Kristensen
Futuriblerne 1989, årgang 17, nr. 4-5. Udgivet af Selskabet for Fremtidsforskning

Kristensen, Thorkild 1989: Erindringer. Odense Universitetsforlag.

Kristensen, Thorkild 1968: The food problem of developing countries, OECD, Paris. (Kristensen 1989: 82). 

Kristensen, Thorkild 1960: The Economic World Balance. Greenwood Press. 
Om udviklingen af verdens regioner fra 1960 til 1980. (Kristensen 1989: 88). 

Witt-Hansen, Johannes  
"FUTURES RESEARCH" - A Philosophical Analysis of Its Subject-Matter and Methods. 
Stig Andur Pedersen og Johannes Witt-Hansen 1982.

Stig Andur Pedersen (1943-2018)
... Andur spillede en hovedrolle på Roskilde Universitet fra 1977, hvor han i 1995 var med til at starte Afdelingen for Filosofi & Videnskabsteori. ... 

Fremtidsforskningens internationale teorihistorie

The Future of the World: Futurology, Futurists, and the Struggle for the Post Cold War Imagination
Jenny Andersson 2018. Oxford University Press. 
Futurists were a motley crew of Cold War warriors, nuclear scientists, journalists, and peace activists. Some argued it should be a closed sphere of science defined by delimited probabilities. They were challenged by alternative notions of the future as a potentially open realm. ... 


History of futures studies

The cold war and the American security political nexus 
The boom in forecasting that began in the early 1960s was strongly influenced by an American security political nexus, dominated by actors such as the RAND Corporation, the Congress for Cultural Freedom, and the Ford Foundation.n11
The subsequent spread of futures studies, however, was linked to emerging new social movements on the global level that were concerned with the future of “mankind”—including previously invisible segments of humanity in the form of unborn generations and peoples in remote areas of the world. n12.
n11: See Giuliana Gemelli, The Ford Foundation and Europe, 1950’s–1970’s: Cross-Fertilization of Learning in Social Science and Management (Brussels, 1998);
Volker R. Berghahn, America and the Intellectual Cold Wars in Europe (Princeton, N.J., 2002); ... 
n12 Matthew Evangelista, Unarmed Forces: The Transnational Movement to End the Cold War (Ithaca, N.Y., 1999).
Jenny Andersson. The Great Future Debate and the Struggle for the World. American Historical Review, Oxford University Press (OUP), 2012, 5 (117), pp.1411-1430.
<>. ... 

Jungk and Galtung

Robert Jungk 
Jungk was also the author of an earlier book titled Die Zukunft hat schon begonnen: Amerikas Allmacht und Ohnmacht (1952), translated into English in 1954 as Tomorrow Is Already Here, which was a scathing critique of American civilization and its particular conception of the future ...
Robert Jungk, Tomorrow Is Already Here, trans. Marguerite Waldman (New York, 1954).
Jenny Andersson 2012: The Great Future Debate and the Struggle for the World. American Historical Review, Oxford University Press (OUP), 2012, 5 (117), pp.1411-1430. ... ... pdf 

Robert Jungk and Norbert Müllert, Future Workshops: How to Create Desirable Futures (London, 1987).

The Delphi method, which assessed the probability of nuclear war but never questioned its desirability, became symbolic ... 
Jenny Andersson 2012: The Great Future Debate and the Struggle for the World. American Historical Review, Oxford University Press (OUP), 2012, 5 (117), pp.1411-1430. ... ... pdf 

Jungk and Galtung  
The American group connected to the Institute for the Future took editorial control of the journal Futures in 1970.92 Their vision of a world order built around military security and the status quo was radically different from that of Jungk or of Galtung, the founder of the Peace Research Institute in Oslo and of a program in futures studies as a method of peacemaking at the UN University in Dubrovnik. Galtung understood the future as a third way between the superpowers, and as a sphere of freedom and resistance. n93.
Jenny Andersson 2012: The Great Future Debate and the Struggle for the World. American Historical Review, Oxford University Press (OUP), 2012, 5 (117), pp.1411-1430. ... ... pdf 

1972 at the Third World Future Research Congress in Bucharest, the general theme of which was “The Common Future of Man.”n94.
... The federation was granted Category C affiliate status (a mutual information relationship) by UNESCO, meaning that it benefited from the status of affiliated NGOs ... 
Jenny Andersson 2012: The Great Future Debate and the Struggle for the World. American Historical Review, Oxford University Press (OUP), 2012, 5 (117), pp.1411-1430. ... ... pdf 

The Future of the World - Futurology, Futurists, and the Struggle for the Post Cold War Imagination
Jenny Andersson 2018. OUP. 
... The Future of the World reconstructs the Cold War networks of futurologists and futurists. ... 
Anmeldelse: ... ... 
Jenny Andersson books: ... 


Richard​ Slaughter and Sohail Inayatullah -  developing the CLA framework
It was on the way to Australia, during a 1986 stopover in Hawaii, that Slaughter first met Sohail Inayatullah ... What Slaughter found in Hawaii was in marked difference to the mainland USA. The faculty in the futures program were neo-Marxist or post-structuralist in orientation,
... In fact, many at the Manoa School of Futures Studies had for some time been developing similar approaches. They included Wendy Shultz, Chris Jones, Rick Scarce, Phil McNally, Anna Wilson-Yue, Wayne Yasutomi, and others. Shultz had employed the work of Baudrillard to explore and move ‘beyond orthodox and hererodox, i.e. the doxa’.94 Inayatullah had been developing a typology for futures studies using three epistemological categories, predictive, interpretive, and critical, based on the work of Michael Foucault.
Ramos, Jose W. (2003). "From critique to cultural recovery: critical futures studies and casual layered analysis". Australian Foresight Institute. ... pdf

Historicism and the Future of Futurology  
Goldthorpe, John H, ‘Theories of Industrial Society: Reflections on the Recrudescence of Historicism and the Future of Futurology’, European Journal of Sociology, vol. 12, 1971, p264.

Miles, I, ‘The Ideologies of Futurists’, in J. Fowles (ed) The Handbook of Futures Research, Greenwood, 1978, p73.

Galtung, J. & Inayatullah, S, ed. Macrohistory and Macrohistorians, Praeger, Westport CT, 1997. 

Inayatullah, S, ‘Causal Layered Analysis: Post structuralism as method’, KBFS, Futures Study Centre, Melbourne, 1996.

Inayatullah, S, ‘Causal layered analysis: Post structuralism as method’, from Questioning the future, Tamkang University, Taipei, 2002 (notes).

Inayatullah, Sohail, 2004, The Causal Layered Analysis Reader. Tamkang University, Tamsui.

Inayatullah, Sohail and Milojević, Ivana , eds., 2015, CLA 2.0: Transformative research in theory and practice.
Tamkang University, Tamsui. ... 

Fremtidsforskningens historie

Wendell Bell
Bell, W. Foundations of Futures Studies, I, Transaction Publishers, New Jersey, 1997
Bell, W Foundations of Futures Studies, 2, Transaction Publishers, New Jersey, 1997. ... 

Richard Slaughter
The knowledge base of futures studies. Vol 1. Foundations ... 

Gidley, Jennifer M.

Rohrbeck, R - Aarhus University, School of Business and Social Sciences
Rohrbeck, R., Battistella, C., Huizingh, E., 2015. Corporate foresight: an emerging field with a rich tradition.
Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. 101, 1–9.

Futures studies

Outline of futures studies


Looking forward: Prediction and uncertainty in modern America  
Jamie L. Pietruska 2017. 
... In the decades after the Civil War, the world experienced monumental changes in industry, trade, and governance. As Americans faced this uncertain future, public debate sprang up over the accuracy and value of predictions. 
...  Looking Forward explores how forecasts functioned as new forms of knowledge and risk management tools that sometimes mitigated, but at other times exacerbated, the very uncertainties they were designed to conquer. ... 

The Empire of Civilization - The evolution of an imperial idea
Brett Bowden 2009.
9 Conclusion: The Future of Intercivilizational Relations. ... 

Technology forecasting

USA - military and the private sector

Persistent Forecasting of Disruptive Technologies  
Technology forecasting has existed in one form or another for more than a century, but it was not until after World War II that it began to evolve as a structured discipline.
The motivation for this evolution was the U.S. government’s desire to identify technology areas that would have significant military importance.

Toward New Horizons 
In 1945, a report called Toward New Horizons was created for the U.S. Army Air Forces (von Karman, 1945).
This report surveyed the technological development resulting from WWII, discussed the implications of that development,
and suggested future R&D (Neufeld et al., 1997). Toward New Horizons, written by a committee chaired
by Theodore von Karman, arguably represents the beginning of modern technology forecasting.

The Key to Air Supremacy 
von Karman, Theodore. 1945. Science: The Key to Air Supremacy, summary vol., Toward New Horizons: A Report to General of the Army by H.H. Arnold, Submitted on behalf of the A.A.A. Scientific Advisory Group (Wright Field, Dayton, Ohio: Air Materiel Command Publications Branch, Intelligence, T-2). 15 December.

In the late 1940s, the RAND Corporation was created to assist the Air Force with, among other things, technology forecasting.

Delphi method  
In the 1950s and 1960s, RAND developed the Delphi method to address some of the weaknesses of the judgment-based forecasting methodologies of that time, which were based on the opinions of a panel of experts. The Delphi method offers a modified structured process for collecting and distilling the knowledge from a group of experts by means of a series of questionnaires interspersed with controlled opinion feedback (Adler and Ziglio, 1996). The development of the Delphi method marked an important point in the evolution of technology forecasting because it improved the value of an entire generation of forecasts (Linstone and Turoff, 1975).

The use of technology forecasting in the private sector began to increase markedly during the 1960s and 1970s
(Balachandra, 1980).


Balachandra, Ramaiya. 1980. Technological forecasting: Who does it and how useful is it?
Technological Forecasting and Social Change 16: 75-85.

Fey, Victor, and Eugene Rivin. 2005. Innovation on Demand: New Product Development Using TRIZ. New York: Cambridge
University Press.

Gordon, Theodore J., and Olaf Helmer. 1964. Report on a Long-Range Forecasting Study. Santa Monica, Calif.: RAND Corporation.


Friedman, Thomas L. 2005. The World Is Flat. New York: Farrar, Straus and Giroux.

Graefe, Andreas, and Christof Weinhardt. 2008. Long-term forecasting with prediction markets—A field experiment on applicability and expert confidence.
The Journal of Prediction Markets 2(2): 71-91.

Green, Kesten C., and J. Scott Armstrong. 2007. Structured analogies for forecasting. International Journal of Forecasting 23(3): 365-376. 

Kahaner, Larry. Competitive Intelligence: From Black Ops to Boardrooms — How
Businesses Gather, Analyze, and Use Information to Succeed in the Global Marketplace.
New York: Simon & Schuster, 1996.

Kuznets, S. 1930. Secular Movements in Production and Prices: Their Nature and Their Bearing on Cyclical Fluctuations.
Boston, Mass.: Houghton & Mifflin.

Martino, Joseph P. 1999. Thirty years of change and stability. Technological Forecasting and Social Change 62: 13-18. ... 

Porter, Alan L., Thomas A. Roper, Thomas W. Mason, Frederick A. Rossini, and Jerry Banks. 1991. Forecasting and Management
of Technology. New York: John Wiley & Sons. 

Rohrbeck, René  
Rohrbeck, René and Menes Etingue Kum 2018: Corporate foresight and its impact on firm performance: A longitudinal analysis
Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Volume 129, April 2018, Pages 105-116. ... 

Scenario-based strategizing: Advancing the applicability in strategists' teams
Thomas Lehra, Ullrich Lorenzb , Markus Willertc, René Rohrbeck, ... 

Shiller, Robert (2003), The New Financial Order: Risk in the Twenty-first Century, Princeton University Press: Princeton, NJ. 

Vanston, John H. 2003. Better forecasts, better plans, better results. Research Technology Management 46(1): 47-58.

Vanston, John H., and Lawrence K. Vanston. 2004. Testing the tea leaves: Evaluating the validity of forecasts. Research Technology
Management 47(5): 33-39.

Wang, Clement, Xuanrui Liu, and Daoling Xu. 1999. Chaos theory in technology forecasting. Paper MC-07.4. Portland International
Conference on the Management of Engineering and Technology. Portland, Oregon. July 25-29.

Wolfers, Justin, and Eric Zitzewitz. 2004. Prediction markets. National Bureau of Economic Research, Working paper W10504.
... We analyze the extent to which simple markets can be used to aggregate disperse information into efficient forecasts of uncertain future events. 

International Association of Management Technology (IAMOT)
Strong, R., L. Proctor, J. Tang, and R. Zhou. 2007. Signpost generation in strategic technology forecasting. In Proceedings of the
16th International Conference for the International Association of Management Technology (IAMOT), pp. 2312-2331.

New Rules for the New Economy  
...  takes advantage of the only true scarcity: human attention.


Evolution of futures studies 
Tuomo Kuosa 2011. Futures 43(3):327-336. ... 

O. Borg. The Relationship between futures research and other disciplines and fields of knowledge.
In: M. Vapaavuori, S. von Bruun (Eds.), How We Research the Futures [in Finnish]? Acta Futura Fennica No. 5. Helsinki, Vapk-kustannus, ISBN 951-98852-1-8 (2003), pp. 303–313

E. Laszlo (Ed.), Introduction World Futures - The Journal of General Evolution 59 (3 & 4) (April 2003) 125–126.

S. Inayatullah, Six pillars: futures thinking for transforming, Foresight 10 (1) (2008) 4–12.

Ziauddin Sardar

The Namesake: Futures; futures studies; futurology; futuristic; foresight—What’s in a name? 
Ziauddin Sardar. Futures 42 (2010) 177–184.

Futurology as a division of sociology   
Ziauddin Sardar: ...  the term ‘futurology’ was first introduced by Ossip Flechteim in his 1966 book History and Futurology [4]. Eleonora Masini suggested that Flechteim himself did not have a great deal of confidence in the term, nor was he sure whether the said discipline was a ‘science’ or a ‘prescientific’ branch of knowledge [5]. But he was certain that the new field ranged from ‘the destiny of man, the future of his society to the entire range of his future cultural activities’. His ardent desire was to see ‘futurology as a division of sociology resembling the branch of sociology sometimes called ‘‘historical sociology’’’ (4, p. 73).

[4] O.K. Flechtheim, History and Futurology, Verlag Anton Hein, Meisenheim am Glan, 1966.
[5] E. Masini,, post dated 27 May 2008.

Howard Becker ... historical sociology.
Bertrand Russell 1948: Human knowledge.  ... probability ... (Russell 1948: 343). 
Flechtheim ... degree of credibility ... 
(Flechtheim 1966: 73). 

Sardar’s four laws of futures studies  
5.1. Sardar’s first law of futures studies: futures studies are wicked
5.2. Sardar’s second law of futures studies: futures studies are MAD
5.3. Sardar’s third law of futures studies: futures studies are sceptical. 
5.4. Sardar’s fourth law of futures studies: futures studies are futureless

Ziauddin Sardar 
Future: All That Matters, Hodder Education, London, 2013. 
Islam, Postmodernism and Other Futures: a Ziauddin Sardar reader, Pluto Press, London 2004 (introduced and edited by Sohail Inayatullah and Gail Boxwell).
Rescuing All Our Futures: The Future of Future Studies, Adamantine Press, London. 
Postmodernism and the Other: New Imperialism of Western Culture, Pluto Press, London, 1997. 
Ziauddin Sardar and Merryl Wyn Davies: Will America Change? Icon Books, Cambridge, 2008. Review


1971 tillsatte regeringen en utredning med uppdrag att undersöka framtidsstudiernas former. Utredningen leddes av statsrådet Alva Myrdal och den färdiga rapporten fick namnet Att välja framtid (SOU 1972:59).
... År 1999 tillsattes ekonomhistorikern Lena Sommestad som ny VD. Det forskningsprogram hon utformade, Människan i framtiden, var centrerat kring den demografiska förändringen mot ett samhälle med en allt äldre befolkning.

Futurology, Futurists, and the Struggle for the Post Cold War Imagination 
Jenny Andersson 2018. OUP. ... ... 

The Future of the World 
Jenny Andersson: ’The Future of the World. Futurology, Futurists, and the Struggle for the Post-Cold War Imagination’, Oxford University Press 2018. ... 


Automation: A Study of its Economic and Social Consequences
Friedrich Pollock.1956. 
... USA 1900-1950 ...
Definition of Automation ... (Pollock.1956: 95, 103).
...  the question of the speed with which automation may be expected to be introduced. (Pollock.1956: 100).
...  the work of 'programming' -i.e. to prepare the 'instructions' for the 'giant brain' ...
... Again it is plain that automation is being speeded up by the 'irresistible pressure' of economic and military competition. (Pollock.1956: 100).
... This discussion about the meaning of 'automation' recalls the long-drawn-out arguments about the meaning of 'capitalism'. (Pollock.1956: 102).
Pollock`s definition of Automation: Automation is a technique of industrial production, combined with a method of processing data, introduced since the second World War. With the aid of the most advanced techniques and devices-but with certain economic limitations this method of production attempts to perform by machinery all the functions hitherto performed by human beings. The machines are 'controlled' by machines. (Pollock.1956: 108). ... pdf 

Friedrich Pollock