Fremtidsanalyse

Geopolitik problematikker 
Internationalisering, regionalisering.globalisering.
Hvordan nationernes rivaliserer påvirker de enkelte nationer.

Bringing the State Back in 
Evans, Rueschemeyer & Skocpol (2010).
www.cambridge.org ... 

Theda Skocpol 
www.en.wikipedia.org ... 

How to Regulate Artificial Intelligence 
Oren Etzioni (2017).
... But shouldn’t we take steps to at least slow down progress on A.I., in the interest of caution? The problem is that if we do so, then nations like China will overtake us.
www.nytimes.com/2017 ... 

Historical Dynamics: Why States Rise and Fall
Turchin, Peter  2003. Princeton University Press. First paperback printing 2018.
... Goldstone's theory of state breakdown, ... In Goldstone's theory population dynamics is an exogenous variable. (Turchin 2018: 144).
David Hackett Fischer 1996 ... about interaction between population numbers and sociopolitical stability ... in western Europe 1200-2000. 
www.books.google.dk ... 
www.twitter.com/peter_turchin

Forecasting Political Instability 
Goldstone, J. A., R. H. Bates, D. L. Epstein, T. R. Gurr, M. B. Lustick, M. G. Marshal, J. Ulfelder, and M. Woodward. 2010. “A Global Model for Forecasting Political Instability.” American Journal of Political Science 54: 190–208. 

What Does Conflict Theory Predict about America's Future? 
Sociological Perspectives, Vol. 36, No. 4. (Winter, 1993), pp. 289-313.
www.csun.edu ... pdf 

The Deadly Life of Logistics: Mapping Violence in Global Trade 
Deborah Cowen 2014. ... Deborah Cowen traces the art and science of logistics over the past sixty years, from the battlefield to the boardroom and back again... and, considered in the context of the long history of logistics, deeply indebted to the practice of war.
www.upress.umn.edu/book-division ... 

Siden er under konstruktion.

Global Transformations and World Futures Vol. 1
Inayatullah, Sohail Tahir
Global Transformations and World Futures Vol. 2
Inayatullah, Sohail Tahir
Global Transformations and World Futures - Contents 
Knowledge, Economy, and Society 
Social and Cultural Issues ...
www.eolss.net ... pdf

Sheffield, J., Korotayev, A., & Grinin, L. (Eds.). (2013). Globalization: Yesterday, today, and tomorrow. Litchfield Park: Emergent Publications. 

Multipath Forecasting 
Turchin, Peter et al 2018: A History of Possible Futures: Multipath Forecasting of Social Breakdown, Recovery, and Resilience. 
Cliodynamics, 9(2)
www.cloudfront.escholarship.org ... pdf 

Great divergence and great convergence: A global perspective
Leonid Grinin 2015. 
Springer International Publishing Switzerland.  
... Reindustrialization of the West 

Amsden, A. H. (2004). The rise of ‘the rest’. Challenges to the West from late-industrializing economies. New York, NY: Oxford University Press. 

Caggiano, G., & Leonida, L. (2009). International output convergence: Evidence from an autocorrelation function approach. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 24, 139–162. 

De Soto, H. (2000). The mystery of capital: Why capitalism triumphs in the west and fails everywhere else. London: Black Swan.
www.yendieu.files.wordpress.com/2009/04/the-mystery-of-capital.pdf

Devezas, T. C., Linstone, H. A., & Santos, H. J. S. (2007). The growth of the Internet, long waves, and global change. In G. Modelski, T. Devezas, & W. R. Thompson (Eds.), Globalization as evolutionary process: Modeling global change (pp. 310–335). London: Routledge. 

Kondratieff waves at the dawn of the 21st century  
Grinin, L. E., T. C. Devezas, & A. V. Korotayev (Eds.), Kondratieff waves: Dimensions and prospects at the dawn of the 21st century (pp. 211–218). Volgograd: Uchitel. 

Hawksworth, J., & Cookson, G. (2008). The world in 2050. Beyond the BRICs: A broader look at emerging market growth prospects. London: PricewaterhouseCoopers. 

Hoekman, B. M., Maskus, K. E., & Saggi, K. (2005). Transfer of technology to developing countries: Unilateral and multilateral policy options. World Development, 33(10), 1587–1602. 

Jones, C. I. (2005). The shape of production functions and the direction of technical change. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 120, 517–549. 
www.web.stanford.edu/~chadj/JonesQJE2005.pdf

Khaltourina, D., & Korotayev, A. (2007). A modified version of a compact mathematical model of the world system economic, demographic, and cultural development. In M. G. Dmitriev, A. P. Petrov, & N. P. Tretyakov (Eds.), Mathematical modeling of social and economic dynamics (pp. 274–277). Moscow: RUDN.

The middle income trap 
Kharas, H., & Kohli, H. (2011). What is the middle income trap, why do countries fall into it, and how can it be avoided? Global Journal of Emerging Market Economies, 3, 281.

Kindleberger, C. P., & Aliber, R. Z. (2005). Manias, panics, and crashes: A history of financial crises. Hoboken: Wiley

Kinnvall, C. (2004). Globalization and religious nationalism: Self identity, and the search for ontological security. Political Psychology, 25(5), 741–766.

Köhler, G., & Tausch, A. (2002). Global Keynesianism: Unequal exchange and global exploitation. Huntington, NY: Nova Science.

Kohli, H. A., & Mukherjee, N. (2011). Potential costs to Asia of the middle income trap. Global Journal of Emerging Market Economies, 3(3), 291–311.
... Historically, however, many fast-growing countries have stagnated upon reaching middle-income status, a phenomenon known as the “Middle Income Trap.
www.journals.sagepub.com/doi/10 ... 

Kupchan, C. A. (2002). The end of the American era. New York, NY: Knopf.

Lewis, W. W. (2004). The power of productivity: Wealth, poverty, and the threat to global stability. Chicago, IL: University of Chicago Press.
... The disparity between rich and poor countries is the most serious, intractable problem facing the world today. ... 
www.goodreads.com/book/show/381339.The_Power_of_Productivity

Modelski, G. (2012). Kondratieff (K-) waves in the modern world system. In L. E. Grinin, T. C. Devezas, & A. V. Korotayev (Eds.), Kondratieff waves: Dimensions and perspectives at the dawn of the 21st century (pp. 65–75). Volgograd: Uchitel

Ndulu, B. J., Chakraborti, L., Lijane, L., Ramachandran, V., & Wolgin, J. (2007). Challenges of African growth: Opportunities, constraints, and strategic directions. Washington, DC: The World Bank.

Owen, A. L., Videras, J., & Davis, L. (2009). Do all countries follow the same growth process? Journal of Economic Growth, 14(4), 265–286.

Papenhausen, C. (2008). Causal mechanisms of long waves. Futures, 40, 788–794.
www.researchgate.net/publication/247 ... 

Petrakos, G., & Artelaris, P. (2009). European regional convergence revisited: A weighted least squares approach. Growth and Change, 40(2), 314–331.

Powell, J. L., & Khan, H. (2013). Ageing and globalization: A global analysis. Journal of Globalization Studies, 4(1), 137–146.

Rennstich, J. K. (2002). The new economy, the leadership long cycle and the nineteenth K-wave.
Review of International Political Economy, 9(1), 150–182.

Rosenthal, J.-L., & Wong, R. B. (2011). Before and beyond divergence: The politics of economic change in China and Europe. Cambridge: Harvard University Press.
www.piketty.pse.ens.fr/files/RosenthalWong2011.pdf

Rostow, W. W. (1975). Kondratieff, Schumpeter and Kuznets: Trends periods revisited. Journal of Economic History, 35(4), 719–753.

Roy, O. (2004). Globalized Islam: The search for a new ummah. New York, NY: Columbia University Press. 

Sala-i-Martin, X. X. (2006). The world distribution of income: Falling poverty and … convergence, period. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 121(2), 351–397.

Sanderson, S. K. (1995). Social transformations. A general theory of historical development. Cambridge: Blackwell.

Seshanna, S., & Decornez, S. (2003). Income polarization and inequality across countries: An empirical study. Journal of Policy Modeling, 25, 335–358.

Sheffield, J., Korotayev, A., & Grinin, L. (Eds.). (2013). Globalization: Yesterday, today, and tomorrow. Litchfield Park: Emergent Publications. 

Snooks, G. D. (1996). The dynamic society. Exploring the sources of global change. London: Routledge.

Spence, M. (2011). The next convergence: The future of economic growth in a multispeed world. New York.
... how the global economy will develop over the next fifty years ...  the forces at play in today’s global economy: removal of trade barriers, the lightning-fast transfer of knowledge from developed to emerging economies, ... 
www.gsb.stanford.edu/faculty-research ... 
www.pdfs.semanticscholar.org ... pdf 

Taagepera, R. (2014). A world population growth model: Interaction with Earth’s carrying capacity and technology in limited space. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 82, 34–41.

Tausch, A. (2006). Global terrorism and world political cycles. In L. Grinin, V. C. de Munck, & A. Korotayev (Eds.), History and mathematics: Analyzing and modeling global development (pp. 99–126). Moscow: KomKniga/URSS.

USA decline
Todd, E. (2003). After the empire: The breakdown of American order. New York, NY: Columbia University Press.
Se også 2011: America is fast losing its grip on the world stage in economic, military and ideological terms.  ... was once a protector and is now a predator."  ... neokonservative ...
www.en.wikipedia.org/wiki/After_the_Empire

Thompson, W. R. (2000). The emergence of a global political economy. London: Routledge.
 
Tomlinson, J. (1991). Cultural imperialism: A critical introduction. Baltimore: John Hopkins University Press

Turchin, P. (2003). Historical dynamics: Why states rise and fall. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.

Turchin, P., & Nefedov, S. (2009). Secular cycles. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.

Wallerstein, I. (2003). The decline of American power. The U.S. in a chaotic world. New York, NY: New Press 

World Bank. (2014). World development indicators online. Washington: World Bank. Retrieved from http://web.worldbank.org 

Yanling, X. (2010). A multidimensional perspective of the antiglobalization and alterglobalization trend of thought. Journal of Globalization Studies, 1(1), 150–165.

Yan, Y. (2002). Managed globalization: State power and cultural transition in China. In P. L. Berger & S. P. Huntington (Eds.), Many globalizations: Cultural diversity in the contemporary world (pp. 19–47). New York: Oxford University Press.

Zinkina, J., & Korotayev, A. (2014). Explosive population growth in tropical Africa: Crucial omission in development forecasts (emerging risks and way out). World Futures, 70(4), 271–305.

Zinkina, J., Malkov, A., & Korotayev, A. (2014). A mathematical model of technological, economic, demographic and social interaction between the center and periphery of the World system. In K. Mandal, N. Asheulova, & S. G. Kirdina (Eds.), Socio-economic and technological innovations: Mechanisms and institutions (pp. 135–147). New Delhi: Narosa Publishing House.

 

 

 

 

Overbeek, H. (2013). Transnational historical materialism: neo-gramscian theories of class formation and world order.
In R. Palan (Ed.), Global political economy: contemporary theories (pp.162-176) (2nd ed.). New York: Routledge.

Panitch, L., & Gindin, S. (2012). The making of global capitalism. Verso Books.

Robinson, W. I. (2014). Global capitalism and the crisis of humanity. Cambridge University Press. 

Beyond Surveillance Capitalism: Reclaiming Digital Sovereignty 
www.decodeproject.eu/events ... 

Peter Dickens, Global Shift: Mapping the Changing Contours of the World Economy, 7th ed. (New York: Guilford, 2015).

William Robinson, Global Capitalism and the Crisis of Humanity (New York: Cambridge University Press, 2014). 

Choices for USA's role in the world
Bremmer, Ian 2015: Superpower: Three choices for America's role in the world. Portfolio Penguin.  
...  Bremmer outlines three options for readers to consider what sort of country America should be ... 
www.en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Superpower ... 

Automation Will Crash Democracy 
Ian Bremmer vs Yascha Mounk debate, 2018
www.youtube.com/watch ... 

Eurasia Group  
Ian Bremmer founded Eurasia Group in 1998.
Political risk index in 2001
Top political risks rapport forecast, in 2006
www.eurasiagroup.net ... 
www.twitter.com/EurasiaGroup
www.twitter.com/ianbremmer

Ian GR Shaw, Robot Wars: US Empire and geopolitics in the robotic age 
... How will the robot age transform warfare? What geopolitical futures are being imagined by the US military? This article constructs a robotic futurology to examine these crucial questions.
www.journals.sagepub.com ... 

Robotic futures that are being imagined and projected by US military officials, think-tanks, and defense documents (e.g. Defense Science Board, 2016; Scharre, 2014; US Air Force, 2016; US Department of Defense, 2013; Work and Brimley, 2014).
www.journals.sagepub.com ... 

Airwars 
Monitoring and assessing civilian harm from airpower-dominated international military actions.
www.airwars.org

References 

Allen, J (2011) Topological twists: Power’s shifting geographies. Dialogues in Human Geography 1(3): 283–298.  

Amoore, L, Raley, R (2017) Securing with algorithms: Knowledge, decision, sovereignty. Security Dialogue 48(1): 3–10.

Bourne, M (2012) Guns don’t kill people, cyborgs do: A Latourian provocation for transformatory arms control and disarmament. Global Change, Peace & Security 24(1): 141–163. 

Coeckelbergh, M (2011) From killer machines to doctrines and swarms, or why ethics of military robotics is not (necessarily) about robots. Philosophy and Technology 24(3): 269–278. 

Dalby, S (2005) Political space: Autonomy, liberalism, and empire. Alternatives: Global, Local, Political 30(4): 415–441. 

Dillon, M (2007) Governing terror: The state of emergency of biopolitical emergence. International Political Sociology 1(1): 7–28. 

Dittmer, J (2013) Geopolitical assemblages and complexity. Progress in Human Geography 38(3): 385–401. 
Dittmer, J, Sharp, J (eds) (2014) Geopolitics: An Introductory Reader. Abingdon: Routledge. 

Gregory, D (2014) Drone geographies. Radical Philosophy 183(January/February).  
www.radicalphilosophy.com/article/drone-geographies

Kadtke, J, Wells, L (2014) Policy Challenges of Accelerating Technological Change: Security Policy and Strategy Implications of Parallel Scientific Revolutions. Center for Technology and National Security Policy, National Defense University.
http://ctnsp.dodlive.mil/files/2014/09/DTP106.pdf

Mabee, B (2016) From ‘liberal war’ to ‘liberal militarism’: United States security policy as the promotion of military modernity. Critical Military Studies 2(3): 242–261. 

McCoy, A (2012) Imperial illusions: Information infrastructure and the future of U.S. global power. In: McCoy, AW, Fradera, JM, Jacobson, S (eds) Endless Empire: Spain’s Retreat, Europe’s Eclipse. Madison, WI: University of Wisconsin Press, 3–39. 

Miller, David T. 2015 : Defense 2045: Assessing the Future Security Environment and Implications for defence policymakers
www.books.google.dk ... 

Mumford, A (2013) Proxy warfare and the future of conflict. The RUSI Journal 158(2): 40–46. 

Munro, J (2014) US foreign policy, intersectional totality and the structure of empire. Third World Quarterly 35(9): 1566–1581.

Shaw, IGR (2017) The great war of enclosure: Securing the skies. Antipode. 

Singer, PW (2009) Wired for War: The Robotics Revolution and Conflict in the Twenty-First Century. New York: Penguin.

Sukman, D (2015) Lethal autonomous systems and the future of warfare. Canadian Military Journal 16(1): 44–53. 

Turse, N (2012b) The Changing Face of Empire: Special Ops, Drones, Spies, Proxy Fighters, Secret Bases, and Cyberwarfare. Chicago, IL: Haymarket. 

US Air Force (2009) United States Air Force Unmanned Aircraft Systems Flight Plan, 2009–2047.  
www.fas.org/irp/program/collect/uas_2009.pdf 

US Air Force (2016) Small Unmanned Aircraft Systems (SUAS) Flight Plan 2016–2036. 
www.af.mil ... pdf   

Vine, D (2015) Garrisoning the globe. TomDispatch, 13 September.
... there are now around 800 U.S. bases in foreign countries.  ... 
www.tomdispatch.com ...

White House (2015) National Security Strategy. Washington, DC: White House. 

Wilcox, L (2017) Embodying algorithm war: Gender, race, and the posthuman in drone warfare. Security Dialogue 48(1):11–28. 
www.journals.sagepub.com ...

Woodward, K, Jones, JP, Marston, SA (2012) The politics of autonomous space. Progress in Human Geography 36(2): 204–224.  

Work, RO, Brimley, S (2014) 20YY: Preparing for War in the Robotic Age. Center for a New American Century. 
www.s3.amazonaws.com ... WorkBrimley.pdf

References
Ian Shaw is a Lecturer in Human Geography at the School of Geographical and Earth Sciences of the University of Glasgow.
www.journals.sagepub.com ... 

Globalization and alternative futures  
Mark Rupert and M. Scott Solomon 2005: Globalization and international political economy: The politics of alternative futures. Rowman & Littlefield Publishers. 
www.books.google.dk/books ...
www.archive.org/details/globalizationint00rupe
Review: A Critical Look at Globalization 
www.jstor.org/stable/462 ...  

Hochschild, Arlie (2004) “Let Them Eat War,”
AlterNet: www.alternet.org/2004/01/let_them_eat_war

Naomi Klein film »The Shock Doctrine« 
Politiske ledere har brugt militærinvasioner og naturkatastrofer til at bane vejen for frie markedskræfter.
Det argumenterer Naomi Klein for i filmen »The Shock Doctrine«, et tankevækkende indblik i, hvordan politiske teorier kan styre store dele af verden. 
www.berlingske.dk/filmanmeldelser ... 

Demystifying China’s Mega Trends: The Driving Forces That Will Shake Up China and the World 
Chi Lo 2017. Emerald Publishing Limited. 
www.emeraldinsight.com ... 
www.bibliotek.dk ... 

Rebalancing China: International Lessons in Corporate Debt 
David Lipton 2016. 
... China’s challenges are manageable. But rebalancing requires a range of actions. 
www.imf.org/en/News/Articles/2015 ... 

The China Boom - Why China Will Not Rule the World.
Ho-fung Hung. Columbia University Press
www.cup.columbia.edu ... 

How Fast Will China Grow Towards 2030?  
Randers, Jørgen (2016). How Fast Will China Grow Towards 2030? And what about the US?
World Economics, 17(2), s. 63- 78.
www.bi.edu ... 

Rolland, N. (2015, April 2). A fiber-optic silk road: China’s silk road initiative has profound implications for cyberspace, as well as for physical infrastructure. The Diplomat.
www.thediplomat.com/2015/04/a-fiber-optic-silk-road

China's Global Hunt for Energy
By David Zweig and Bi Jianhai 2005
www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/asia/2005 ... 

China and Africa  
Sautman, B., & Yan, H. (2007). Friends and interests: China's distinctive links with Africa.
African Studies Review, 50(3), 75-114. 

Chinese developmental miracle
So, A. Y. (2009). Rethinking the Chinese developmental miracle. In H.F. Hung (Ed.),
China and the Transformation of Global Capitalism, 50-64. Johns Hopkins University Press.

China, towards market economy or crony capitalism?  
... Wu Jinglian, one of China's leading economists and a longtime advocate of China's transition to free markets, says that it faces two starkly contrasting futures: a market economy under the rule of law or crony capitalism. A dozen years later, prominent political scientist Pei Minxin had concluded that the latter course had become deeply embedded in China.
www.en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Crony_capitalism
Wu Jinglian 
www.en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wu_Jinglian
Minxin Pei 2016: China's Crony Capitalism: The Dynamics of Regime Decay". Harvard University Press.
www.en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Minxin_Pei 

Crony-capitalism index  
www.en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Crony-capitalism_index

China and Europe  
Minxin Pei 2011: When Illusion Meets Reality: The Evolving Relationship Between China and Europe, in: Robertson-von Trotha, Caroline Y. (ed.): Europe: Insights from the Outside (= Kulturwissenschaft interdisziplinär/Interdisciplinary Studies on Culture and Society, Vol. 5), Nomos, Baden-Baden 2011. 
www.en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Minxin_Pei 

Drivers and Scenarios of Transition to Democracy in China by 2030 
Minxin Pei and Andrew Small 2015. 
www.gmfus.org/audio/drivers-and-scenarios-transition-democracy-china-2030

Wang, J. (2008). Brand new China: Advertising, media, and commercial culture.
Cambridge, Mass: Harvard University Press. 

Wu, F. (2005). The globalization of corporate China. National Bureau of Asian Research. 

Yang, X., & Stoltenbery, C. (2008). Growth of made-in-China multinationals: an
institutional and historical perspective. In I. Alon & M. John (Ed.),Globalization of
Chinese Enterprises, , 61-76. Palgrave Macmillan. 

Yeung, A., Xin, K., Pfoertsch, W., & Liu, S. (2011). The globalization of Chinese
companies: Strategies for conquering international markets. John Wiley & Sons.

Zhang, W. (2012). The China wave: Rise of a civilizational state. World Scientific. 

Zhao, Y. (2008a). Communication in China: Political economy, power, and conflict.
Rowman & Littlefield Publishers. 

Zhao, Y. (2011). The challenge of China: Contribution to a transcultural political economy of communication for the Twenty-First century.
In J. Wasko & G. Murdock (Ed.), The Handbook of Political Economy of Communications, 558-582. Wiley-Blackwell. 

Dicken, P. (2007). Global shift: Mapping the changing contours of the world economy. SAGE Publications Ltd. 

World Economic Forum's Geostrategy platform 
www.weforum.org/focus ... 

This Is What A 21st-Century Police State Really Looks Like
Far from the booming metropolis of Beijing, China is building a sprawling system that combines dystopian technology and human policing. “It’s a kind of frontline laboratory for surveillance.” v/Megha Rajagopalan 2017. 
... Kashgar is a city where growing a beard can get you reported to the police. So can inviting too many people to your wedding, or naming your child Muhammad or Medina.
... China’s government says the security measures are necessary in Xinjiang because of the threat of extremist violence by Uighur militants. 
www.buzzfeednews.com/article/meghara ... 

Power in Movement
Sidney Tarrow 1998, Power in Movement: Social Movements and Contentious Politics (Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press.
... Charles Tilly, Barrington Moore Jr. ... 
Sidney G. Tarrow is researching war, state building, and human rights.
www.voidnetwork.gr ... Sidney-Tarrow.pdf 

International political economy - automated war and terrorism 
Kiggins, Ryan David  ed. (2018). The political economy of robots: Prospects for prosperity and peace in the automated 21st century 
Palgrave Macmillan. www.palgrave.com/gp/book ... 
www.books.google.dk/books ... 

War and Economic Growth 
Ruttan, Vernon (2006). Is War Necessary for Economic Growth?: Military Procurement and Technology Development. New York: Oxford University Press.

War and General Purpose Technology (GPT)  
www.en.wikipedia.org/wiki/General_purpose_technology