Menu

Fremtidsanalyse

Fremtidsforskning og cases

Index
Anticipation 
Backcasting 
Baseline 
Black swan 
Breaks, Ruptures, Disruptions, Discontinuities 
Business as usual 
Causality 
Complex systems 
Delphi 
Drivers, Driving forces 
Emerging pattern 
Expert 
Exploration 
Extrapolation 
Forecast, Forecasting 
Foresight 
Future 
Futures Studies 
Horizon scanning 
Knowledge 
Mapping 
Model 
Narrative, Storyline 
Normative scenario
Outlook 
Pathway 
Plausible 
Predictability 
Proactive 
Probability 
Projection 
Prospective 
Qualitative 
Quantitative 
Roadmap 
Scenario 
Simulation 
Strategic planning 
System 
Time Horizon, Time Frame 
Transition..22
Trend, Megatrend 
Uncertainty 
Vision, Visioning 
Weak signal 
Wild Card 
Worldview 
Reference 
www.fao.org ... pdf

Moravec's paradox 
... contrary to traditional assumptions, high-level reasoning requires very little computation, but low-level sensorimotor skills require enormous computational resources.
"It is comparatively easy to make computers exhibit adult level performance on on intelligence tests or playing checkers, and difficult to give them the skills of a one-year-old, when it comes to perception ...".
www.en.wikipedia.org ... 
Hans Moravec 
www.en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hans_Moravec

Time horizon  
The time horizon of a Foresight exercise should lie beyond the normal planning horizons of the players involved but close enough that it could still be influenced by today's decisions ... in the case of infrastructures the time horizon might be 30 to 50 years
www.forlearn.jrc.ec.europa.eu/guide ...