Index
Anticipation
Backcasting
Baseline
Black swan
Breaks, Ruptures, Disruptions, Discontinuities
Business as usual
Causality
Complex systems
Delphi
Drivers, Driving forces
Emerging pattern
Expert
Exploration
Extrapolation
Forecast, Forecasting
Foresight
Future
Futures Studies
Horizon scanning
Knowledge
Mapping
Model
Narrative, Storyline
Normative scenario
Outlook
Pathway
Plausible
Predictability
Proactive
Probability
Projection
Prospective
Qualitative
Quantitative
Roadmap
Scenario
Simulation
Strategic planning
System
Time Horizon, Time Frame
Transition..22
Trend, Megatrend
Uncertainty
Vision, Visioning
Weak signal
Wild Card
Worldview
Reference
www.fao.org ... pdf
Moravec's paradox
... contrary to traditional assumptions, high-level reasoning requires very little computation, but low-level sensorimotor skills require enormous computational resources.
"It is comparatively easy to make computers exhibit adult level performance on on intelligence tests or playing checkers, and difficult to give them the skills of a one-year-old, when it comes to perception ...".
www.en.wikipedia.org ...
Hans Moravec
www.en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hans_Moravec
Time horizon
The time horizon of a Foresight exercise should lie beyond the normal planning horizons of the players involved but close enough that it could still be influenced by today's decisions ... in the case of infrastructures the time horizon might be 30 to 50 years
www.forlearn.jrc.ec.europa.eu/guide ...