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Fremtidsanalyse

Fremtidsforskning og cases

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Artificial Intelligence
Economic Theory 
Intangible Economy
Platforms and workers 
Varieties of Capitalism 

Economics of AI

The economics of artificial intelligence: An agenda 
Ajay Agrawal; Joshua Gans; Avi Goldfarb
Chicago: The University of Chicago Press 2019.
www.econpapers.repec.org/bookchap/nbrnberbk/agra-1.htm

The Economics of Artificial Intelligence: An Agenda, 2017  
www.nber.org/books/agra-1

Economics of Machine Intelligence 
Agrawal, Ajay, Joshua Gans & Avi Goldfarb (2016). The Simple Economics of Machine Intelligence. 
www.hbr.org/2016/11/the-simple-economics-of-machine-intelligence

The Simple Economics of Machine Intelligence 
www.pombo.free.fr/agrawal2018.pdf 

Artificial Intelligence as the Next GPT: A Political-Economy Perspective
Chapter in NBER book 2019: pp 175-186 
Manuel Trajtenberg (2019).
www.nber.org/chapters/c14025.pdf

Age of Automation

Frey, Carl Benedikt (2019). The Technology Trap: Capital, Labor, and Power in the Age of Automation. Princeton Univercity Press.  

Fremtidens arbejdsmarked

Automation, capitalism and the end of the middle class 
Jon-Arild Johannessen (2019).
Abingdon, Oxon: Routledge.

The workplace of the future: The fourth industrial revolution, the precariat and the death of hierarchies
Jon-Arild Johannessen (2019). Routledge, Taylor & Francis Group. 

Knowledge management as a strategic asset: An integrated, historical approach
Jon-Arild Johannessen (2019).

Automation, innovation and economic crisis: Surviving the fourth industrial revolution
Jon-Arild Johannessen (2018). Routledge. 
...  a "perfect" social storm occurs when inequality grows at a catastrophic rate ...  it will only take a small spark for this social storm to develop into a social revolution.
www.routledge.com ... 

Jon-Arild Johannessen   
www.no.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jon-Arild_Johannessen
www.app.cristin.no/persons ... 

The future of capitalism: Facing the new anxieties 
Paul Collier (2018).
New York, N.Y.: Harper, an imprint of HarperCollins Publishers.
www.youtube.com/watch ... 

Paul Collier  
www.en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paul_Collier

Technology, work and social conflictuality 
Marc Troisvallets. In Kléber Ghimire ed. 2018 
www.taylorfrancis.com ... 

Future Courses of Human Societies
Critical Reflections from the Natural and Social Sciences
Kléber Ghimire ed. 2018 
www.taylorfrancis.com/books/978 ... 

GPT

General purpose technology (GPT) 
AI som den nye General purpose technology (GPT), efter dampmaskinen, dieselmotoren, elektriciteten og computeren. 
www.en.wikipedia.org/wiki/General_purpose_technology

Bresnahan and Manuel Trajtenberg (1995) coined the term “General Purpose Technology” (GPT). 
www.books.google.dk/books ... 

AI in Education – Interview with Prof. Manuel Trajtenberg, 2019
www.aitimejournal.com ... 

Chad Syverson, interview 
... Erik Brynjolfsson, Daniel Rock, and I are going out on a limb a little bit by saying this, but we think AI checks the boxes for a general-purpose technology.
www.richmondfed.org ... pdf 

WID

World Inequality Database  
www.twitter.com/wid_inequality

A Review of Thomas Piketty’s Capital in the Twenty-First Century
www.worldbank.org ... pdf 

 

The Economics of Artificial Intelligence 
An Agenda by Ajay Agrawal et al. (2019).
www.ebooks.com ... 

Ajay Agrawal  
www.twitter.com/professor_ajay

AI og økonomi

Hvad sker der med økonomien hvis arbejderne bliver erstattet med robotter? 

Martin Ford vs Robin Hanson debate 

Hanson, Robin 1998: Economic Growth Given Machine Intelligence 
... producers can focus on giving the rich what they want, and innovation and growth is just as feasible for elite products as for mass products.
www.mason.gmu.edu/~rhanson/aigrow.pdf

Ford, Martin 2009: The Economic Implications of Intelligent Machines 
www.mfordfuture.com/2009/10/26 ... 

Ford, Martin 2009: Response to Robin Hanson: Why he’s wrong about “Economic Growth Given Machine Intelligence” 
... Finally, as Hanson says, “Sure high income inequality might be ethically bad, and [might] threaten political instability.” That’s not something that we can simply dismiss
www.mfordfuture.com/2009/10/29 ... 

Robin D. Hanson, CV and publications 
www.mason.gmu.edu/~rhanson/vita.html

Brancher

Artificial Intelligence Industry – An Overview by Segment 
Rethinking Industries:
Agriculture
Culture, Education, 
Economy, Finance, Philanthropies
Energy: Oil/Gas
Manufacturing
Media/Content
Medical, Diagnostics, 
Politics, Legal
Retail, AdTech, Consumer Finance, 
Transport, Automotive, 
www.emerj.com/ai-sector-overviews ... 

Kapitalisme og teknologi

Capital-biased technological change  
...  the kind of change that could make society richer but workers poorer ...
www.krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2012 ... 

Robots, capital-biased technological change and inequality  
... What started as a discussion about the rise of automation in manufacturing – and its potential impact on “re-shoring” manufacturing to the U.S ... 
www.bruegel.org/2012 ... 

Waves of Global Change

Patterns of the Future: Understanding the Next Wave of Global Change
Markku Wilenius 2017. (University of Turku, Finland). 

Patterns of the Future explains the current world using the theory of long-term development waves (Kondratiev waves). Markku Wilenius, Professor of Futures Studies, argues that we are now entering the sixth wave: the age of intelligent, integrated technologies, helping to restore the balance between humans, technology and nature by radically improved material and energy efficiency and a wiser use of human potential. 
www.worldscientific.com/worldscibooks/10.1142/q0083

The next K-Wave and the challenge of global democracy  
Foresight, Vol. 17 Issue: 1, pp.35-52.
Markku Wilenius 2015. Emerald Group Publishing Limited.
www.emeraldinsight.com/doi/abs/10.1108/FS-09-2013-0049

Markku Wilenius  
www.emeraldinsight.com/author/Wilenius%2C+Markku
www.twitter.com/MWilenius

Finland Futures Research Centre  
www.utu.fi/en/university/turku ... 
Futures Studies Courses 
www.utu.fi/en/units/ffrc/studying ... 

Automation and jobs

Automation: Is it really different this time?: Review essay: Automation
Judy Wajcman. British Journal of Sociology 68(1) · February 2017. 
... ... This review examines several recent books that deal with the impact of automation and robotics on the future of jobs
www.researchgate.net/publication/313 ... 

The Culture of AI: Everyday Life and the Digital Revolution
Anthony Elliott 
www.books.google.dk ... 

The Future of Work: Super-Exploitation and Social Precariousness in the 21st Century
Adrián Sotelo Valencia. BRILL. 1. ed. 2015, ©2016

Platforms and workers

Digital manipulation: How platforms like Uber and Deliveroo exploit workers  
Sangeet Paul Choudary 2018 
www.blog.usejournal.com/digital-manipulation-and-the-future-of-work ... 

Framework for determining whether a platform empowers or exploits workers
Morning Address at the Parliament of Denmark by Sangeet Paul Choudary
This special address lays out a framework for determining whether a platform empowers or exploits workers and producers and lays out recommendations for the regulation of such platforms. 
www.youtube.com ... 

The world moves from pipelines to platforms  
www.platformed.info/how-the-platform-economy-is-reshaping-global-trade

Policy implications of the platform economy  
www.platformthinkinglabs.com/advisory

The Best Reads on Platforms from 2018  
... Platform expert Sangeet Paul Choudary had the chance to help ILO (International Labour Organization) figure out how possible regulations might help the design of platforms that deliberately seek worker well-being over worker exploitation
www.stories.platformdesigntoolkit.com/platforms2018 ... 

Platform news  
www.us11.campaign-archive.com ... 

The Future of Work

Social Precariousness in the 21st Century
The Future of Work: Super-Exploitation and Social Precariousness in the 21st Century
Adrián Sotelo Valencia 2015. Brill.  
Content: 
Capital-labour as Antipodes? Pages: 7–20.
The Labour Process and Productive Labour in Contemporary Capitalism. Pages: 21–32.
The Structural Crisis of Capital Abstract Labour. Pages: 33–62.
Surplus Value and the Super-exploitation of Labour. Pages: 63–81.
The New Morphology of Capitalism. Pages: 82–135.
www.bibliotek.dk/da/search ... 

Zero marginal cost

Capitalism and the Internet of Things  
Jeremy Rifkin on the Fall of Capitalism and the Internet of Things
www.youtube.com ... 

The Zero Marginal Cost Society, Jeremy Rifkin  
www.thezeromarginalcostsociety.com

Intangible Economy

Capitalism Without Capital, The Rise of the Intangible Economy 
Jonathan Haskel and Stian Westlake 2017. 
www.press.princeton.edu/titles/11086.html
www.bibliotek.dk/da/search ... 
Introduction 
...  see what these economic changes mean for government policymakers, businesses ...
www.assets.press.princeton.edu/chapters/s11086.pdf

Falsche Versprechen: Wachstum im digitalen Kapitalismus  
... Der digitale Kapitalismus der Gegenwart ist von einem Konsumtionsdilemma geprägt ...
Philipp Staab 2016. Online-Ressource (136 S.).
www.bibliotek.dk/da/search ... 
Philipp Staab. Institute for the History and Future of Work, Germany. 
Philipp Staab on digital capitalism, the welfare state and Industry 4.0
www.youtube.com/watch ... 

The consumption dilemma of digital capitalism
Philipp Staab 2017 
www.journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10 ... 

A digital capitalism Marx might enjoy  
The conflict between labor and capital has shifted in capital’s favor. But there are some ways labor could fight back.
Ryan Avent 2018
www.technologyreview.com/s/611 ... 

 

Varieties of Capitalism

Varieties of Capitalism
Peter Hall and David Soskice (2001) 
www.scholar.harvard.edu ... 

Capitalism, socialism & democracy
Economist Richard Wolff speaks about capitalism, socialism & democracy 
www.youtube.com ... 

Artificial Intelligence

Prediction Machines: The Simple Economics of Artificial Intelligence  
Ajay Agrawal, Joshua Gans and Avi Goldfarb. Harvard Business Review Press 2018.
www.hbr.org/product/prediction-machines ... 

Economic Theory

In 100 years: Leading economists predict the future  
Ignacio Palacios-Huerta ed. 2013. MIT Press. 

John Roemer
... Roemer's work on exploitation led him to believe that the fundamental cause of exploitation was inequality of ownership of productive assets, rather than the kind of oppression that occurs in the labor process at the point of production—the latter view was held by many in the 'New Left' (see, e.g., Braverman 1974)
www.en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Roemer
John Roemer: Climate Change Papers
www.campuspress.yale.edu/johnroemer/climate-change-papers

Siden er under konstruktion.

Den Kreative Klasse i Danmark

Sådan ser den Kreative Klasse ud i Danmark  
Første skridt i retning af at kortlægge den Kreative Klasse i Danmark er nu taget. Lektor Mark Lorenzen og projektkoordinator Kristina Vaarst Andersen offentliggjorde deres første rapport i 2005 
www.web.archive.org/web/2010 ... 
Et fælles europæisk forskningsprojekt ved navn ‘Technology, Talent and Tolerance in European Cities: A Comparative Analysis’ har arbejdet på at afprøve betydningen af Richard Floridas tese om den kreative klasse i en europæisk kontekst.
www.web.archive.org/web ... pdf 

The creative class goes global 
Charlotta Mellander, R. Florida et al eds. Routledge 2014. 
www.m-fritsch.de ... Creative-Class-in-Seven-European-Countries.pdf

Mark Lorenzen  
Mark Lorenzen researches relationships between innovation and economic organization in networks, projects, and clusters, currently in the creative industries. ...  editor of The Oxford Handbook of Creative Industries.
www.cbs.dk/en/research ... 

Økonomi og klima

Dynamic Integrated model of Climate and the Economy (DICE) 

Hughes, Barry B. 2019: International Futures: Building and Using Global Models
Academic Press. Imprint of Elsevier.
www.books.google.dk/books ... 

Hughes, Barry B. et al 2014: Strengthening governance globally: Forecasting the next 50 years. Routledge. 
www.bibliotek.dk/da/search ... 

GCAM Model  
Overview. interactions between five systems: the energy system, water, agriculture and land use, the economy, and the climate. 
www.jgcri.github.io/gcam-doc/overview.html

Political economy of robots:

International political economy - automated war and terrorism 
Kiggins, Ryan David  ed. (2018). The political economy of robots: Prospects for prosperity and peace in the automated 21st century 
Palgrave Macmillan. www.palgrave.com/gp/book ... 
www.books.google.dk/books ... 

Secular Stagnation

The Age of Secular Stagnation: What It Is and What to Do About It 
Lawrence H. Summers 2016 
... excessive saving acts as a drag on demand, reducing growth and inflation, and the imbalance between savings and investment pulls down real interest rates.
...explanations for what is happening have been proposed, notably:  
Kenneth Rogoff’s theory of a debt overhang,
Robert Gordon’s theory of supply-side headwinds,
Ben Bernanke’s theory of a savings glut, and
Paul Krugman’s theory of a liquidity trap ...
... in a period of rapid technological change, it can make sense to defer investment lest new technology soon make the old obsolete ...
www.larrysummers.com/2016 ...