Fremtidsanalyse

Values and sustainable consumption 

Thøgersen, J., & Ölander, F. (2002). Human values and the emergence of a sustainable consumption pattern: a panel study. Journal of Economic Psychology, 23, 605–630. 

Values and corporate social initiative: An approach through Schwartz theory
G.-R.M. Rosario. International Journal of Business and Society 15(1):19-48. January 2014. 
www.researchgate.net/publication/287 ... 

12 ways the tech sector can help save the climate in 12 years  
www.weforum.org/agenda/2019 ... 

Global Climate Action Summit  
Report showing 12 ways that existing digital technology - search, e-commerce and social media - can help the world halve emissions in 12 years, based on our Exponential Climate Action Roadmap report launched at the recent Global Climate Action Summit. 
www.exponentialroadmap.org/12in12 

How AI can save - or destroy - the environment 
www.medium.com/dialogue ... 

Boligejere bør tænke mere på klimasikring
Fremtidens klima bliver mere ekstremt med kraftige skybrud og flere stormfloder
www.realdania.dk/nyheder/2019 ... 
www.bolius.dk/vandetkommer og www.realdania.dk/tema/havvandsstigninger

Backcasting methodology
Herrmann, N. (2011): Regional Energy 2050: A sustainability oriented strategic backcasting methodology for local utilities. 1. Edition, 2011. Rainer Hampp Verlag, München (D). 

Back to the Future: A backcasting based approach to planning for an energy system transition in the danish region of Zealand
Damsø, Tue Noa Jacques; Christensen, Thomas Budde; Kjær, Tyge 2014. 
Journal of Transdisciplinary Environmental Studies 
www.rucforsk.ruc.dk/ws/files/55100907/no_3_Tue_Damsoe.pdf
Tue Noa Jacques Damsø:
www.twitter.com/tuenjd
www.linkedin.com/in/tuedamsoe
www.forskning.ruc.dk/da/persons/tnjd

The Tyndall decarbonisation scenarios
Mander, S.L., A. Bows, K.L. Anderson, S. Shackley, P. Agnolucci & P. Ekins (2008): The Tyndall decarbonisation scenarios – Part I: Development of a backcasting methodology with stakeholder participation. ”Energy Policy”, vol. 36, 2008, pp. 3754-3763.
... The Tyndall decarbonisation scenarios project has outlined alternative pathways whereby a 60% reduction in CO2 emissions from 1990 levels by 2050.
www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0301421508002851
The Tyndall decarbonisation scenarios—Part II:  
www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0301421508002875

Om backcasting
www.backcasting.dk/referencer/backcasting

International Trade Centre (ITC).  
Your roadmap to sustainable consumption, production and trade
www.sustainabilitymap.org

Market data on Voluntary Sustainability Standards at your fingertips  
www.sustainabilitymap.org/trends

The State of Sustainable Markets 2018: Statistics and Emerging Trends
Voluntary sustainability standards continue their growth across the world.
www.intracen.org/publication ... 

AURA - Aarhus University Research on The Anthropocene  
(AURA) aims to open up a novel and truly trans-disciplinary field of research into the Anthropocene which is needed to understand the kinds of lives that are made and the futures that are possible in the ruined, re-wilded, and unintended landscapes of the Anthropocene.
www.anthropocene.au.dk/da
www.anthropocene.au.dk/publications

Anna Lowenhaupt Tsing

The mushroom at the end of the world: on the possibility of life in capitalist ruins
Anna Lowenhaupt Tsing. Princeton University Press 2015.  

Arts of living on a damaged planet 
Anna Lowenhaupt Tsing. University of Minnesota Press 2017.

... Contra Latour, but also Haraway and Tsing, for Bratton there is no local, only the global.  
On Benjamin Bratton's The Stack. McKenzie Wark — December 28, 2016
www.publicseminar.org/2016/12/stack ... 

Quantifying Economic Damages from Climate Change
Maximilian Auffhammer 2018
Journal of Economic Perspectives—Volume 32, Number 4—Fall 2018—Pages 33–52.

Coverage of the Damage Function Literature
Agriculture. Schlenker and Roberts (2009); Moore, Baldos, Hertel, and Diaz (2017).
Forestry. 
Species loss. 
Sea-level rise. Houser, Hsiang, Kopp, and Larsen (2015).
Energy. Auffhammer (2018).
Human amenity. Albouy, Graf, Kellogg, and Wolff (2016); Baylis (2015)
Morbidity and mortality. Deschênes and Greenstone (2011); Carleton et al. (2018).
Migration. Bohra-Mishra, Oppenheimer, Hsiang (2014); Missiran and Schlenker (2017).
Crime and conflict. Burke, Hsiang, and Miguel (2015b).
Productivity. Peng, Deschênes, Meng, and Zhang (2018).
Water consumption.
Pollution. Bento, Mookerjee, and Severenini (2017).
Storms.
www.pubs.aeaweb.org ... pdf 

Geopolitics  
Trade and Climate Change
War and Climate Change

Baseline future economy   
The National Academies of Sciences made suggestions relating to how one constructs a baseline future
economy out to the year 2300. 
www.pubs.aeaweb.org ... pdf 

Models  
Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE)
Climate Framework for Uncertainty, Negotiation and Distribution model. FUND. 
Dynamic Integrated Climate–Economy model. DICE damage function. 
Global circulation models. (GCMs)
Policy Analysis of the Greenhouse Effect model. PAGE.
www.pubs.aeaweb.org ... pdf 

Miljø og politik

Climate change

Jørgen Randers  
www.en.wikipedia.org ... 

Graeme Maxton 
Reinventing Prosperity: Managing Economic Growth to Reduce Unemployment, Inequality and Climate Change, Greystone Publishers, 2016. 
www.en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Graeme_Maxton
www.clubofrome.org ... 
The End of Progress: How Modern Economics Has Failed Us
... how modern economics has failed us and why we need a new measure of progress.
www.graememaxton.com/gpm/2011/08/12/the-end-of-progress

Kina og USA
Randers, Jørgen (2016)
How Fast Will China Grow Towards 2030? And what about the US?
World Economics, 17(2), s. 63- 78.
www.ideas.repec.org ... 

ESCIMO system dynamics model of global warming  
Randers, Jørgen; Göluke, Ulrich, Wenstøp, Fred & Wenstøp, Søren (2016)
A user-friendly earth system model of low complexity: the ESCIMO system dynamics model of global warming towards 2100
Earth System Dynamics, 7(4), s. 831- 850.

2052. A Global Forecast for the Next Forty Years
Jorgen Randers 2012.
Jorgen Randers drew the conclusion that democracies are inherently biased towards short-term fixes, and therefore fundamentally unable to address long-term challenges such as climate change. As a solution, he proposed removing climate policy from day-to-day politics. 
www.ecologic.eu/7750 ... 

23 Things They Don't Tell You About Capitalism
Ha Joon Chang 
... Chang offers a vision of how we can shape capitalism to humane ends. ... in the tradition of John Kenneth Galbraith and Joseph Stiglitz.

Arbejdsmarkedet
Reinventing Prosperity: Managing Economic Growth to Reduce Unemployment ...
Graeme Maxton, Jorgen Randers 
www.books.google.dk ... 

Science Based Activism: Festschrift to Jorgen Randers 
Per Espen Stoknes, Kjell A. Eliassen. Biofolia, 2015. 
... The pathway from scientific knowledge to policy advice is a perilous one. 
www.books.google.dk ... 

EU: CECILIA2050 
Combining Policy Instruments to Achieve Europe's 2050 Climate Targets (CECILIA2050) 
www.cecilia2050.eu/events/2
www.ecologic.eu/7305

www.cecilia2050.eu ... pdf

www.climatestrategies.org
www.twitter.com/Climatestrat

Climate change in the 21st century  
Stewart J. Cohen ; with Melissa W. Waddell. McGill-Queen's University Press 2009.
1950s – 1970s The growth of scenario-based research. 
1980s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).
United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). .
Conferences of the Parties (COPs) GHG Scenarios Kyoto Protocol Role of Mass Media Discussion. 
www.bibliotek.dk/da/search ... 

Governing Climate Change - Polycentricity in Action? 
Andrew Jordan, Dave Huitema, Harro van Asselt, Johanna Forster eds. Cambridge University Press 2018. 
... van Asselt, H. and Bößner, S. (2016). The shape of things to come: global climate governance after Paris. Carbon and Climate Law Review, 10(1), 46–61.
... Krisch, N. (2017). Liquid authority in global governance. International Theory, 9(2), 237–260.
... Sabel, C. and Victor, D. (2017). Governing global problems under uncertainty: making bottom-up climate policy work. Climatic Change, 144(1), 15–27.
... Schleifer, P., Fiorini, M. and Auld, G. (2017). Transparency in Transnational Sustainability Governance: A Multivariate Analysis of Regulatory Standard-Setting Programs, EUI Working Papers, Robert Schuman Centre for Advanced Studies 2017/16.
www.cambridge.org ... 

The Politics of Fossil Fuel Subsidies and their Reform  
Jakob Skovgaard & Harro van Asselt, eds. Cambridge University Press 2018. 
www.cambridge.org ... 

Biodiversity scenarios: projections of 21st century change in biodiversity and associated ecosystem services: a technical report for the Global Biodiversity Outlook 3.
Secretariat of the Convention on Biological Diversity 2010. 

Rachel Carson (1907 - 1964)
American marine biologist, whose book Silent Spring (1962) are credited with advancing the global environmental movement. Although Silent Spring was met with fierce opposition by chemical companies, it spurred a reversal in national pesticide policy, which led to a ban on DDT. ... In the 1980s, the policies of the Reagan Administration emphasized economic growth, rolling back many of the environmental policies adopted in response to Carson and her work.
www.en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rachel_Carson

Michael Gerst, Paul Raskin, and Johan Rockström, “Contours of a Resilient
Global Future,” Sustainability 6, no. 1 (2014): 123–135,
www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/6/1/123 
The referenced paper links two streams of quantitative
research: global scenarios (Raskin et al., “The Century Ahead”) and the
emerging approach of “planetary boundaries” (Johan Rockström et al., “A Safe
Operating Space for Humanity,” Nature 461 [September 2009]: 472–475).
The synthesis clarifies the biophysical risks of alternative scenarios, on the one hand,
and illuminates the social drivers of Earth system change, on the other. 

References 
www.greattransition.org ... pdf

www.tellus.org

Siden er under konstruktion.

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change  
Global Warming of 1.5 ºC 
www.ipcc.ch/sr15
www.twitter.com/IPCC_ch

Liebreich: In Energy and Transportation, Stick it to the Orthodoxy! 
... There is now a new orthodoxy in energy and climate, which I summed up in my Summit keynote: in the world of 2040, one third of power will come from wind and solar, one third of vehicles will be electric, and the economy will be one third more energy-efficient than today.
www.about.bnef.com/blog/energy-transportation-stick-orthodoxy 

Bloomberg New Energy Finance  
Perspective on the technologies and financial, economic and policy trends driving the energy transformation. 
www.about.bnef.com

BloombergNEF (BNEF) 
Bloomberg’s primary research service, covers clean energy, advanced transport, digital industry, innovative materials and commodities. 
www.twitter.com/BloombergNEF

IEA - the global energy authority  
www.twitter.com/IEA

Archer, D. (2008), The Long Thaw: How Humans are Changing the Next 100,000 Years of Earth’s Climate, Princeton University Press, Princeton.

Archer, D. and Ganopolski, A. (2005), “A movable trigger: Fossil fuel CO2 and the onset of the next glaciation”, Geochemistry, Geophysics, Geosystems, 6(5).

Long-Term Trajectories of Human Civilization 
Seth D. Baum, Robin Hanson et al 2019
www.gcrinstitute.org/papers/trajectories.pdf

Dynamic Integrated model of Climate and the Economy (DICE) 

Hughes, Barry B. 2019: International Futures: Building and Using Global Models
Academic Press. Imprint of Elsevier.
www.books.google.dk/books ... 
 
 

Risk characteristics, 1-5:   
(1) global in nature.
(2) highly interconnected and intertwined, leading to complex causal structures.
(3) non-linear in the cause–effect relationships, often involving unknown tipping points or tipping areas.
(4) stochastic in their effect structure, so that more than one future is possible.
(5) systemic risks are due to the interplay of individual micro- and global macro-processes within the system under
consideration, combined with exogenous processes that modify the internal dynamics of the system.
www.globalclimateforum.org ... pdf 

Integrating Systemic Risk and Risk Analysis Using Copulas  
... how current systemic risk research can be related to traditional risk analysis approaches from a conceptual as well as an empirical point of view. Based on Sklar’s Theorem, which provides a one-to-one relationship between multivariate distributions and copulas,
www.researchgate.net/publication/329 ... 

Things are different today: the challenge of global systemic risks  
Ortwin Renn, Klaus Lucas, Armin Haas & Carlo Jaeger (2017): Things are different today: the challenge of global systemic risks, Journal of Risk Research
... , the concept is used to discuss not only the risks of financial crises, but also those of climate change, pandemics, terrorism, war, cybersecurity, and more (Goldin and Mariathasan 2014).
www.globalclimateforum.org ... pdf 

References 

Beck, U. 1992. Risk Society, Towards a New Modernity. London: Sage.

Goldin, I., and M. Mariathasan. 2014. The Butterfly Defect: How Globalization Creates Systemic Risks, and What to Do about It. Princeton: Princeton University Press.
www.bibliotek.dk/da/search ... 

Lempert, R. J., and M. T. Collins. 2007. “Managing the Risk of Uncertain Threshold Responses: Comparison of Robust,
Optimum, and Precautionary Approaches.” Risk Analysis 27 (4): 1009–1026.